by Astrid Chang 
The Panamanian real estate market this 2022 will gradually move from recession to recovery, according to the president of the Panamanian Association of Real Estate Brokers and Developers (Acobir), Francisco Cheng, who during the virtual conversation “Café con La Prensa” predicted that by 2023 there will be a significant increase in GDP thanks to various factors, including the results of the analysis of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which estimated that for this year Panama’s GDP would be closing at 7. 5%, taking into account that last year it grew by 15%, which means that for two consecutive years the GDP has had an interesting increase.
Another pillar that promises a favorable future for investments is employment. Since 2021, unemployment rates have been decreasing; in 2020 it was 18%, last year it was 11% and it is expected that by 2023 unemployment will drop to 10%.
Cheng says, “We are starting to see unemployment rates catching up to pre-pandemic levels, which is positive because our real estate business relies so heavily on employment.”
The next factor is the increase in mortgage lending levels for 2022, which has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels, according to Cheng; however, Acobir remains optimistic.
The best time to invest
Real estate consultant, Aldo Stagnaro agrees with Cheng that employment plays a fundamental role in the development of the real estate business.
For the expert in re-release properties, the reality is that “if there are more jobs, the population focuses its efforts on buying more”, which leads the country to a better financial stability.
In that sense, he emphasizes that it is important to know the real estate cycle, which consists of four stages: the first is recovery, the second is oversupply, the third is reception and the fourth is recession, but what is the best time to invest? According to Stragnaro, the best time to make an investment is during the receiving stage.
As for the recovery stage, the best way to identify it, according to the expert is when news related to foreign investment is announced in the media and in public entities or organizations. “For example, since previous weeks there is mention of topics related to investments coming from Colombia to Panama that benefit investors, real estate advisors and economists. This is an early indicator of good times,” he stresses.
Where to buy or rent?
Most of the inventory of properties registered from Acobir are located in Panama City, however, there are still offers in the countryside.
Cheng and Stagnaro see potential not only to buy, but also to rent in areas such as Bella Vista, Casco Viejo, Costa del Este, Santa Maria, San Francisco and Betania.
As for the countryside, areas such as Boquete, Pedasí and Santa Fe have become more popular.
Acobir manages an inventory of 24,000 units, including pre-sales under construction and those ready for occupancy.
Another market that has shown an increase, according to the president of Acobir, is the beach market, which showed a downturn in 2020 and has been on the rise since then.
Regarding the market for commercial premises, offices and warehouses in this quarter of 2022 compared to the last quarter of 2021 according to figures from the Public Registry there has been an increase in all three items especially in commercial premises. “All this keeps us positive about our real estate industry as a whole and not only the residential aspect, but the commercial aspect as well.”
